CEREAL OUTLOOK IN YEAR 2013
Latest indications point to a more comfortable world cereal supply-and-demand balance in the new 2013/14 marketing season. After a relatively tight situation in 2012/13, characterized by reduced grain supplies and high prices, good production prospects and a likely replenishment in world stocks could pave the way for calmer markets and some easing of prices in the new season.
World cereal production in 2013, including rice on a milled basis, is forecast to reach a record 2 460 million tonnes. This is up 6.5 percent from the previous year’s reduced level, mainly due to higher wheat output and a sharp expected rebound of maize production in the
United States. Rice production is also set to increase in 2013, although concerns over diminishing prices may dampen growth.
Global cereal utilization is forecast to reach 2 402 million tonnes in 2013/14, 3 percent above 2012/13. Much of the growth would stem from higher use of maize for feed and industrial purposes in the United States. Total feed use of coarse grains is forecast to be greater in developing than developed countries for the second consecutive season. The increase in utilization of wheat and rice would be broadly in line with the population growth, a factor that would keep average per capita consumption of cereals stable at around 153 kg per year.
Based on current supply and demand prospects, by the end of seasons in 2014, world cereal inventories could register an 11 percent recovery to 569 million tonnes, the highest level in twelve years. The build-up of stocks is forecast to affect all the major cereals, with coarse grains increasing the most. The projected recovery in world inventories would lead to higher 2014 stock-to-use ratios, especially for maize.
World trade in cereals is forecast to reach 306 million tonnes in 2013/14, similar to 2012/13. A reduction in wheat trade is expected to offset a rebound in maize while rice trade in 2014 is forecast to change little.
Source: Food Outlook Biannual Report on Global Food Markets
Trade and Markets Division
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
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