World oilcrop production could climb to an all-time high, supported by record soybean crops in South America. While large soybean crops point to a healthy expansion in world supplies of meals/cakes, global supplies of oils/ fats should also rise thanks to a recovery in high oilyielding seed output and steady growth in palm oil. Moderate growth in world consumption of oils and meals is expected to continue.
Global output of oilseed products should match world utilization for the second consecutive year, although a sizeable surplus is possible in the case of meals/cakes. As a result, further replenishments in world stocks should be achievable, especially with regard to oilmeals. Based on current prospects, the stock-touse ratio is projected to improve significantly from last
season for meals, but to remain unchanged for oils/fats. The present 2013/14 outlook suggests there is scope for international meal prices to finally come down from their record high levels. Additional downward pressure on meal prices is likely to come from rising
global supplies of feedgrains. As to the oils/fats market, adequate supplies and ample stocks are expected to keep prices stable at their current relatively low level. This season’s outlook relies heavily on the realization of bumper soybean harvests in South America. Any unexpected weather problem in the region would have a direct, strong impact on the global supply and demand situation. With traders closely monitoring weather developments in South America, prices in the oilseed complex are likely to remain volatile.
While international trade in oils/fats is expected to keep expanding moderately, growth in meal transactions should rebound after last season’s slowdown. As meal prices become more affordable meal import demand should increase – although the abundance of feedgrains
may temper such growth.
Source: Abdolreza Abbassian
Trade and Markets Division
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Via delle Terme di Caracalla
00153 Rome - Italy
E-mail: Abdolreza.Abbassian@fao.org or email@example.com