World cereal production (including rice in milled equivalent) is expected to increase by 8 percent in 2013, to 2 498 million tonnes. This forecast is almost 10 million tonnes higher than foreseen in October1, mostly reflecting upward adjustments to production estimates
in Canada, China, the EU, the United States and Ukraine. The sharp increase in 2013 cereal production mostly stems from a recovery of maize crops in the United States and of wheat crops in CIS countries. World rice production in 2013 is expected to grow only modestly.
World cereal utilization in 2013/14 is put at 2 418 million tonnes, 3.5 percent higher than in 2012/13. Total food use of cereals is forecast at 1 099 million tonnes, up 1.7 percent from 2012/13. Larger supplies and lower prices are expected to boost feed use of cereals by 5.3
percent, to 847.6 million tonnes. Global stocks, ending in 2014, are also anticipated to increase, by 13 percent to 564 million tonnes, with coarse grains alone up by 30 percent, mostly in the United States. Wheat and rice stocks are also projected to rise, by 7 percent and
3 percent respectively. The expansion in world cereal stocks would result in the global cereal stocks-to-use ratio reaching 23.0 percent, well above the historical low of 18.4 percent in 2007/08. World cereal trade in 2013/14 is forecast to reach 314.4 million tonnes, 1.7 percent higher than in 2012/13 and slightly above the level expected in October. International trade in coarse grains is projected at a record 135 million tonnes, up 2.1 percent from 2012/13. Wheat trade is forecast to increase by 1.9 percent, to 142 million tonnes, still below its all-time
high in 2011/12. By contrast, after falling by 2 percent in 2013, trade in rice could decline by a further 0.5 percent to 37.4 million tonnes in 2014.
Source: Abdolreza Abbassian
Trade and Markets Division
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Via delle Terme di Caracalla
00153 Rome - Italy
E-mail: Abdolreza.Abbassian@fao.org or email@example.com